Complexity Bias
Imagine you are given 2 hypothesis, one is simple and the other is complex.
Which one are you likely to choose or deem as more credible?
Strangely enough most of us would choose the complex one over the simple one.
Humans are fond of making assumptions and adding far-fetched scenarios to problems/issues, so much so that we ignore the simple solutions that are faster, cheaper and better.
What is Complexity Bias?
Complexity bias is the tendency to look at a simple problem and assuming that there are way more complicated factors at play than there actually is.
Think of the simple approach to weight loss.
Eat healthy and fresh food.
Burn more or the same level of calories as you intake during workout.
This plan will work for most people. Yet, we invest time and money browsing through hundreds of diet plans, pills, fasting rituals etc. We believe that if the plan is complex, then most bases would be covered.
When something is complex we believe that there is some level of due diligence that is done to arrive at that complexity.
This a flawed approach towards problem solving or even living in general.
Another big reason that we prefer complex solutions is for the time it allows us to procrastinate (sometimes indefinitely) on decision making or even taking action.
Israel and Palestine
This is an issue that I’ve been reading up on for a while now. I’ve watched countless documentaries and read books by zionists, anti-zionists and others in between.
And contrary to mainstream narrative, I’m fairly certain that the issue is not at all complicated.
In fact it is so simple, that I would argue that the complications were put there to play to our complexity bias. And most of us have bought it.
This is probably the most political that this newsletter will get but bare with me, there is a something worth acknowledging here.
If you are being objective about the situation there is one basic fact in this issue - There is an oppressing party in this equation and there is an oppressed party.
One party that lost their land to an occupier, the other who is occupying land that does not belong to them.
Does Israel have the right to exist? Yes, absolutely.
Does it have to infringe upon the rights of Palestinians? No.
Solution: Stop occupation and return back all the occupied land not given voluntarily by the Palestinians. Acquire land through legal means and with the explicit permission of the Palestinians involved in the transaction.
Roleplaying Equation: You are at home and someone comes in and asks to sleep on your couch. A few days later, they start using your bedroom and before you know it they ask you to limit your movement to the bathroom and the couch. Soon, you are limited to your couch and asked to not step out of it. You are then told that by stepping off the couch or protesting about the occupation, you will lose the right to the couch and you might be dealt with brute force.
Here is a challenge, try and break down this problem to its absolute basics (ignore propaganda) and give a different equation based on objective facts. I would be very interested to explore different perspectives.
The idea that it is complicated is why people do not talk about this issue thereby playing into the 3rd reason for complexity bias. By terming it as complex, we get all the time in the world to not give our opinions on these issues.
You can look at any political propaganda ranging from the Uyghur Genocide in China to Tamilian oppression and struggle for self-determination in Sri Lanka and you’ll see them play to this bias.
Addressing Complexity Bias
If something is simple and obvious, run with it. Complexity for the sake of it is no good.
Assume the absolute minimum when arriving at a solution to a problem.
If you are looking to start running, put on your shoes and get out of the house before starting to think about getting a fitness watch, syncing it with your iPhone, creating a running playlist, getting a running coach and finding a running buddy.
Making it complex for the sake of it only makes actions and decisions take longer.
Also, think of ideas or concepts by starting from the basis of their first principles.
Thanks for reading.
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