Cognitive Bias: Semmelweis Reflex
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Ignaz Semmelweis, an Hungarian doctor was one of the most influential people in the domain of germ theory.
In 1847, he noticed that infant mortality rate during birth was 3X when performed by Obstetricians as opposed to midwives.
On further investigation, he concluded that it was because doctors hands were contaminated after working at the morgue. (it is obvious now, but it wasn’t then)
So, Dr. Ignaz Semmelweis introduced a Chlorine solution for Obstetricians to wash their hands before starting treatment on an expectant mother.
Needless to say, the experiment was a success.
By most records the mortality rate dropped ten-fold.
Great story! So there must be a good ending to it right? Well, no.
Not only was Semmelweis’s efforts not appreciated at the time, he was actively ridiculed by his peers and the medical community.
In spite of overwhelming evidence in support of Semmelweis’s experiment, some doctors refused to believe that a gentleman's hands could transmit disease. (Source)
This saga didn’t just have an implication on how germ theory flourished but it also had influences in psychology (cognitive biases in particular).
What is the Semmelweis Reflex?
The error in thinking that makes us reject new and sound evidence and research because it conflicts with our strongly held beliefs is called the Semmelweis Reflex.
Anti-Maskers & Anti-Vaxxers
There is overwhelming evidence that wearing protective masks help in reducing air borne transmission of viruses. Yet, there are millions who oppose it because it goes against their strongly held beliefs.
They might have concluded that since none of their non-mask wearing friends got the virus, the protective capability of the mask is falsely advertised.
In fact, this reflex involves another popular cognitive bias called the confirmation bias where the person is looking for data/information that will reinforce their world view.
In this case, anti-maskers might even know someone who died because of the virus but they would still lean towards believing that the virus was not a factor in their death and would often try to find information that reinforces this theory.
The same goes for the anti-vaxxers who will find an exception to reinforce their beliefs rather than looking at the overwhelming empirical evidence of vaccines’ working seamlessly.
Sunk Cost Fallacy in Change & MLMs
Another reason why people find it hard to shift their beliefs is because it is taxing to reimagine their life without it.
While it is easy to shift minor beliefs, there are others which are fundamental to someone’s identity.
For example, a lot of people who work for multi-level marketing companies know that they are fighting a losing battle. In spite of overwhelming evidence that clearly shows that only a small percentage of multi-level marketers actually make money, they will still choose to believe in an highly improbable future.
Why? Because to change now means getting excluded from the MLM’s network of acquaintances, telling people they recruited into the MLM that they are quitting and losing face in the process, leaving the money they invested go to waste, accept that they have failed, accept that they have wasted time and ruined relationships etc.
So instead of confronting the discomfort that change brings with it, they will continue to put more resources and time into the sinking ship.
Countering the Semmelweis Reflex
If you are looking to change opinions but the reflex is in your way, you can employ the following:
Appeal to logic and let the other person find his way to your point.
Build a cushion for the other person so that they can feel safe failing in front of you.
Don’t be confrontational but rather make the other person feel that you are talking for them rather than against them.
On the other hand, while there is a lot to be said about the power of the Semmelweis Reflex on the self, it is something that can be managed.
Seek data that is adjusted for common biases.
Understand sunk cost fallacy and be wary of falling into it.
Encourage diversity of opinions and contradictions.
By proactively implementing these 3 strategies, you are less likely to fall for the Semmelweis Reflex.
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Thanks for reading and keep it rational.