Nader, Keto & Bad Presentations
It is the year 2000 and people are flocking to presidential campaign rallies in the US.
One of the candidates from the 2 major political parties was expected to win and go on to succeed Bill Clinton.
However, there was a 3rd candidate in the picture.
The Green Party candidate for president, Ralph Nader.
In spite of being viewed favourably amongst 42% of the public, he never polled over 6% nationally. (Gallup)
The election ended with him securing just 3% of the vote.
So how can someone who was looked at so favourably amongst the public do so poorly when it comes to securing votes? To understand why Nader lost, we need to explore the popular cognitive bias called the Bandwagon effect.
On the Wagon
The bandwagon effect refers to the tendency people have to adopt a certain behavior, style, or attitude simply because everyone else is doing it and vice-versa.
In simpler terms, people will follow what others do and similarly people will avoid what others seemingly avoid.
When the population believes that a candidate is less likely to win, then they are less likely to vote for him and vice-versa. In 2000, people believed that in spite of Nader’s favourability he is not likely to poll more than Bush & Gore and this in turn became a vicious cycle.
Step 1: People like Nader but they will not vote for him because they believe he will eventually lose to Al Gore & George Bush.
Step 2: Nader loses because he doesn’t get the votes from people who think he will eventually lose to Al Gore & George Bush.
And the cycle continues.
Ironically enough, according to a study the exact opposite happened with Bill Clinton in 1992, where students who thought that Clinton was leading in the polls, switched their vote from Bush to Clinton.
And Clinton won.
The Yes Crowd!
Imagine this scenario - A bad idea is being presented by an authority figure in the office and as the presentation ends, the first batch of feedback is favourable to the idea.
Because of this initial positive reaction to the bad idea, the onus on the next person to agree with the existing sentiment starts getting stronger.
So the person who needs to share his opinion will end up asking himself, how can I be right when I have to disagree with so many people who shared their feedback before me?
Again, the wheels start turning and as more people are intimidated into not disagreeing, the bad idea is accepted or at the very least tolerated.
Veto Against Keto
While there are many experts who outright dismiss the Keto diet for healthy eating, it is still amongst the most followed dieting strategies in the world.
If you picked a random person on the street and asked him to name 3 diet strategies, it is very likely that he will name Keto in his list.
Long story short, in this case the popularity of the diet and not its effectiveness is dictating its adoption.
The false rationalising logic: If enough people know about it or do it, it must be good.
Ride the Wagon
While the bias has strong negative effects, the bandwagon effect is great for your business and career if you use it effectively to your advantage.
Here is how:
When you are presenting/pitching in the presence of others, open your Q&A with people who you know liked the pitch.
If you want to disagree with someone, do it before they find allies or supporters.
If you see an upswing with an idea or motion, push for adoption before anyone else.
Create a set of “bandwagon” allies who can back you up in the workplace.
To avoid getting played by the bandwagon effect focus on building a practice of taking contrarian, data-driven viewpoints even if you see overwhelming favourability to an idea or sentiment.
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